Modeling distributions of ecosystems and species in the SW USA

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Modeling distributions of ecosystems and species in the SW USA: Warming climates affect biodiversity by changing the abundance and the spatial distribution of species. These changes occur as animals either track moving habitats, or fail to track them and disappear from parts of their existing range. Overall, some species will be successful in adapting to climate change, while others will not. Currently, the rates and magnitudes of changes in habitat distribution in response to climate change, and the possible existence of barriers to subsequent species movement, are either unknown or predictable only at very coarse scales. This complicates efforts of wildlife professionals to plan and act, and therefore reduces the likelihood of successful species conservation efforts in the future. This project seeks to provide information that facilitates managing for projected changes in biodiversity at scales appropriate to support planning within federal, state and private conservation organizations. Specifically, this cooperative agreement seeks building a partnership to understand the climatic forcings of ecological system and natural community spatial patterns, and predict future patterns of ecological systems and natural communities as a consequence of climate change.